Stocks Are Disregarding Economic Weakness. | We Also Saw This Before 2008 and 2001

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18 Comments

  1. I recently inherited almost $500k. I REALLY need to make this money work for me, and not just disappear over time. I've been scrambling for somewhere to put the money, where I can make an effort to use the gains to pay bills so I can quit my job . All roads have pointed to the financial market of some sort which is a good idea buh where else should I put money besides the financial market? We have a 13% RPI rate so cash is tough.

  2. It was a very bad decision to remove the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s, which led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007–2008. To prevent another disaster, Dodd-Frank and this statute both need to be reestablished right away. What happened with SVB is only the beginning of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current situation.

  3. Currently I'm just being smart and frugal with my money, I'm in the green 47% over the last 23 months and l've accumulated over $700K in pure profits from DCA’ing into stocks, ETFs, dividends and futures. However I’ve been in the red for a month now. I work hard for my money, so investing is making me a nervous sad wreck. I don’t know if I should sell everything, sit and just wait.

  4. A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.

  5. The financial system has been artificially pumped for over a decade to ensure big pockets were lined; and now those same hands will make a fortune in the largest transfer of wealth in human history by shorting it on the way down. Inflation does have a roll, but that's to keep everyone panicked, and focused on their bills and expenses, rather than focus on the capital crimes of politicians and corporations,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $338k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market??

  6. I was a GOT subscriber for many months. As the market was declining in early 2022 they were long and predicted 5300 on SPX. Then around November they switched to bearish predicted 3500 on SPX. Their largest holding was TLT, which was 108 in Sept and now 104. They make wonderful arguments for a market crash "6 months out". The SPX is 4124, up from 3844 6 months ago. I'm not saying the market won't fall, but I concluded the analysis suffered from tunnel vision. One can always find data to confirm what one wants to believe. So, although GOT analysis is excellent, take it with a grain of salt. The market is the only arbiter of what the market will do. And saying you outperformed the SP when the index lost 14% and you only lost 8% (hypothetical) is not a WIN in my book. 8% loss is still a major loss. Again, it's good work, but beware of the Chicken Little/Pollyana syndrome from which many market 'influencers' suffer IMHO.

  7. Passive investors buying, bulls buying, too many bears, nothing left to sell, forced to cover. Price go up. Nothing needs to be justified by fundamentals, only thing that matters is how large each segment of participants are, their portfolios and their actions. Bears will long the top, then we crash. It never pays to be bear.

  8. I wonder if people that experienced the 2008 crash had it easier because this market conditions are driving me to insanity, my portfolio has lost over $27000 this month alone my profits are tanking and I'm don't see my retirement turning out well when I can't even grow my stagnant reserve

  9. My portfolio has good companies, however it has been stalling this year. I’ve approximately $700k stagnant in my reserve that needs growth, any suggestions to grow my portfolio will be highly appreciated.

  10. I love your acknowledgement that this correction could take a year before this plays through! Patience is the hardest part of investing.

  11. Incorrect. Leading economic indicators do not need to rebound in order for the stock market to rally. What you are ignoring here is the phase of the Fed’s pausing in rate hiking and various other factors such as the current economic is lead more by services than real estate (in the GFC) or a nascent tech bubble (in 2001). As the Fed paused into 2007, stocks moved higher. You are confused because stocks corrected significant already before the Fed’s pause when was not the case in 2007 and 2000. You analysis is discombobulated and incorrect.

  12. It’s always a good option to keep some gold. Well with the current market situation and everything at stake with the present economy, I’d say you’re better off staying away from stocks fr awhile or better still reach out to an adviser for guidance.

  13. Biggest lesson i learnt in 2022 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.

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